Comments on: The blame game… http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/ Michelle Leder's guide to what's hiding in SEC filings Tue, 06 Jan 2009 08:33:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Kate Jones http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/comment-page-1/#comment-3028 Kate Jones Tue, 21 Aug 2007 01:33:30 +0000 http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/#comment-3028 Optimists point out that only a small fraction of mortgages will actually be forclosed. Everyone else will refinance or simply tighten their belts and make the payments. So the subprime mess isn't going to affect the rest of the economy, right? And it's obviously silly to suggest that the subprime mess has caused a drop in motorcycle sales, isn't it? Wrong. The problem isn't the foreclosures, the problem is the actions of people with good credit who pay their loans. People who refinance into fixed rate mortgages or simply bite the bullet and make the reset ARM payments will have higher monthly mortgage payments and will have less to spend on everything else. Which means, less to spend on new clothes, new cars, new computers, restaurant meals, new motorcycles. Which means that all businesses that sell to consumers will see sharp drops in their year on year sales as the belt tightening process plays itself out. The motorcycle manufacturers are getting hit first because motorcycles are a luxury/leisure item for many people. The car manufacturers will see their turn coming in fall 2007 when the new models come out and few people buy them. I'm predicting that 18 months from now, 20% of all American businesses in existence today will fold or seek bankruptcy protection. And then there will be an unemployment problem ... Hate to be so negative, but everyone keeps missing the obvious, which - as pointed out above - is the problem that's going to result when people with high paying jobs and good credit decide to modify their budgets in order to pay their mortgages. Optimists point out that only a small fraction of mortgages will actually be forclosed. Everyone else will refinance or simply tighten their belts and make the payments. So the subprime mess isn’t going to affect the rest of the economy, right? And it’s obviously silly to suggest that the subprime mess has caused a drop in motorcycle sales, isn’t it?
Wrong. The problem isn’t the foreclosures, the problem is the actions of people with good credit who pay their loans. People who refinance into fixed rate mortgages or simply bite the bullet and make the reset ARM payments will have higher monthly mortgage payments and will have less to spend on everything else. Which means, less to spend on new clothes, new cars, new computers, restaurant meals, new motorcycles. Which means that all businesses that sell to consumers will see sharp drops in their year on year sales as the belt tightening process plays itself out. The motorcycle manufacturers are getting hit first because motorcycles are a luxury/leisure item for many people. The car manufacturers will see their turn coming in fall 2007 when the new models come out and few people buy them. I’m predicting that 18 months from now, 20% of all American businesses in existence today will fold or seek bankruptcy protection. And then there will be an unemployment problem … Hate to be so negative, but everyone keeps missing the obvious, which - as pointed out above - is the problem that’s going to result when people with high paying jobs and good credit decide to modify their budgets in order to pay their mortgages.

]]> By: molly http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2990 molly Fri, 17 Aug 2007 13:37:27 +0000 http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/#comment-2990 Check out <a href="http://www.eyeoncountrywide.info" rel="nofollow">www.eyeoncountrywide.info</a>, an independent consumer resource examining sub-prime lending and Countrywide Financial Corporation Check out http://www.eyeoncountrywide.info, an independent consumer resource examining sub-prime lending and Countrywide Financial Corporation

]]> By: El Mike’s Internet News Blog » Blog Archive » Just Blame It On The Subprime Blues http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2987 El Mike’s Internet News Blog » Blog Archive » Just Blame It On The Subprime Blues Fri, 17 Aug 2007 11:17:04 +0000 http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/#comment-2987 [...] the word “subprime” in their SEC filings and she’s found, not surprisingly, a spike in the word’s use. What is a bit surprising are the companies that have invoked the situation to explain their [...] [...] the word “subprime” in their SEC filings and she’s found, not surprisingly, a spike in the word’s use. What is a bit surprising are the companies that have invoked the situation to explain their [...]

]]> By: The Mortgage Blog » Blog Archive » US Mortgage Market Meltdown Hitting Diverse Markets http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2984 The Mortgage Blog » Blog Archive » US Mortgage Market Meltdown Hitting Diverse Markets Fri, 17 Aug 2007 07:40:35 +0000 http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/#comment-2984 [...] in fields as diverse as wireless, restaruant, and motorsports have blamed the mortgage market for poor performance. Asian stock markets have also been hit hard of [...] [...] in fields as diverse as wireless, restaruant, and motorsports have blamed the mortgage market for poor performance. Asian stock markets have also been hit hard of [...]

]]> By: Research Recap » Blog Archive » Real or Perceived, Impact of Subprime Mortgage Mess Spreads http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2977 Research Recap » Blog Archive » Real or Perceived, Impact of Subprime Mortgage Mess Spreads Thu, 16 Aug 2007 13:36:57 +0000 http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/#comment-2977 [...] to Footnoted.org, the term subprime was mentioned in 1,349 SEC filings since June 1, 2007, nearly double the number [...] [...] to Footnoted.org, the term subprime was mentioned in 1,349 SEC filings since June 1, 2007, nearly double the number [...]

]]> By: Frank Graham http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2971 Frank Graham Wed, 15 Aug 2007 16:58:44 +0000 http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/#comment-2971 Yeah dog ate my homework. HOG cycles has been weak this year as have RV sales. Duh. House on wheels is soft as much as a "lier's mortgage" so me thinks this is a system breakdown. High fuel charges and no credit lines. Well of course WMT is gonna suffer. btw STC is a title insurance company and doesn't appear to face the woes of homebuilders or lenders. Even a bank house repo auction uses a fresh title search. Golden biz unless a second Great Depression. Watching the distressed commercial auction biz since they were an early tell as dot coms went bust and unloaded all those ergo chairs. An exchange-traded fund tracking home-builder stocks, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction, was off 41% so far this year as of Tuesday's close. And tied to mortgage mess... Top Hedge Fund Blow-up News and Commentary: http://hf-implode.com/ Yeah dog ate my homework. HOG cycles has been
weak this year as have RV sales. Duh. House on wheels is soft as much as a “lier’s mortgage”
so me thinks this is a system breakdown.
High fuel charges and no credit lines. Well of course WMT is gonna suffer.
btw STC is a title insurance company and doesn’t appear to face the woes of homebuilders
or lenders. Even a bank house repo auction uses a fresh title search. Golden biz unless a second Great Depression.
Watching the distressed commercial auction biz since they were an early tell as dot coms went bust and unloaded all those ergo chairs.
An exchange-traded fund tracking home-builder stocks, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction, was off 41% so far this year as of Tuesday’s close.
And tied to mortgage mess…
Top Hedge Fund Blow-up News and Commentary:
http://hf-implode.com/

]]> By: Jim Harrison http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2970 Jim Harrison Wed, 15 Aug 2007 16:31:42 +0000 http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/the-blame-game/#comment-2970 Hmmmm. I think many companies will want to add this in their filings. What it really says is, "Hey, we didn't meet our numbers this quarter. We are not going to tell you that we managed poorly, but let's blame it on the market". :) Jim Hmmmm. I think many companies will want to add this in their filings. What it really says is, “Hey, we didn’t meet our numbers this quarter. We are not going to tell you that we managed poorly, but let’s blame it on the market”. :)

Jim

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