Revisiting the gun meme…
In the 10-K that storied rifle and shotgun manufacturer Remington Arms Co., Inc. filed on Tuesday, it had an interesting observation:
“Management believes that despite the challenges in the banking industry, the resulting stock market drop, unstable fuel prices and the ensuing government bailout, we have experienced no significant adverse impact in our overall sales. We believe the overall market for our products picked up subsequent to the U.S. Presidential election and we believe this is attributable to consumer concerns that the new administration could ban and regulate certain guns and ammunition in a more restrictive manner.”
If you’re feeling a twinge of deja vu, you may be remembering this post from last year, when we looked at the seemingly anomalous Smith & Wesson (SWHC), which disclosed similar language in its 10-Q. At the time, the company said it credited the uptick in sales to “speculation on the outcome of the presidential election”. Literally days after the election, we started seeing stories about gun sales soaring and those stories are still coming, judging by this story from yesterday.
Now unlike Smith & Wesson, Remington is not publicly traded, though because it has public debt, it is required to file a 10-K. Still, it seems more than a bit coincidental that both companies would mention the same exact thing in their filings over the course of several months — almost as if it was a planned message like those talking points that seem to circulate around Washington (or on investor conference calls). So we decided to take a look at the numbers for background checks for gun purchases. Now, keep in mind that these numbers don’t represent all gun sales, including personal sales or sales made at gun shows. While it’s true that the numbers show a sharp increase over the past few months — there was a 28.7% increase in January 2009, for example — the general trend going back to 2005 shows a steady stream of increases in background checks. On an annualized basis, background checks have been growing steadily since the second year of the Bush Administration.
So is the surge to arm up real or is it something cooked up by some public relations folks? In many ways, it seems like the latter.
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Posted in Tags: 10-Ks, odd filings, politics |
 31 Comments » |
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March 31st, 2009 at 10:33 am
Hmmm, I think it is probably real. FWIW, in my small town, my hunter friends tell me that ammo is so hard to find they are considering making their own, since ingredients are still available.
I think the trend is due partly to fears of greater gun regulation, but also to a general sense of unease as our economic foundations appear to be getting a bit like the ground under San Francisco that turns to jelly in certain types of earthquakes. Hence, increases in sales may be less related to current politics and more related to secular trends.
March 31st, 2009 at 11:34 am
But the trend is more than one month long.
Nov 2008 = +41.6% YOY
Dec 2008 = +23.8% YOY
Jan 2009 = +28.8% YOY
Feb 2009 = +23.3% YOY
The surge in purchases is definitely real. If you talk to any retailer or wholesaler, guns are flying off the shelf. The big online ammo dealers are flat out of stock. See:
http://snipurl.com/exu3s
Now, I think you could legitimately ask if the manufacturers have created a self-fulfilling prophecy by talking up the possibility of new gun regs. But that doesn’t mean the demand isn’t real.
March 31st, 2009 at 11:40 am
Thought it went along with whole nesting, home
defense syndrome as seen in rise in home safe sales and
bank vault deposit sales? General paranoia of the times
like hording gold and foodstuffs.
Course could just be the long national nightmare 2.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Sorry, but if you’ve been to any gun store since October 2008, you’d know that the increased demand is real. Go looking for a “evil black rifle” and you’ll find most gun shops are sold out. They’ll get in a dozen and sell them in two hours. Many large gun dealers can’t keep Glocks on the shelf. A gun dealer without Glocks is like a grocery store without milk, eggs, and bread.
March 31st, 2009 at 6:37 pm
Since the background check numbers are not representative here — or, perhaps only represent a fraction of total sales — is there some database that does a better job at tracking? Otherwise, I fear we’re lost in the PR wind machine. Open to any suggestions, since I’m much more skilled at reading SEC filings than finding databases on gun sales.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:51 pm
SO SO SO REAL. Gun shop owners have a picture of Obama under “employee of the month” for 7 months running. Literally.
You cannot buy many types of ammo, and I’m on a waiting list for an assault rifle for months now (Smith and Wesson). 2 years ago, no problem.
It’s a tsunami….a government that tells us banks could collapse any moment without taxpayer dollars, and at the same time an administration/congress that is definitely anti-gun. Anyone that has considered arming themselves in the past is now taking the plunge.
Expect an resulting uptick in hunting, and a downtick in crime…as usual.
April 1st, 2009 at 7:34 am
It’s really a “tightening the belt” strategy against the recession. More people will be turning to hunting to provide the necessary protein in their diets without the now exorbitant costs of meat.
Kidding aside, I think the crisis and meltdown talks have spurred more self reliant attitudes in “fence walkers” of the gun issue. This is specifically applicable in the situations of cities that have large budget shortfalls. Our area is already dealing with rotating fire station closures, and I would imagine law enforcement patrols are similarly affected. With less police protection (assuming there really is a significant protection factor there) people are arming themselves for safety.
The potential for anit-gun legislation is just icing on the cake.
April 1st, 2009 at 7:40 am
A year ago, there were rebates on some AR-15 type rifles. Now there is a waiting list, along with a $200+ price increase for like models. And it is not just the guns themselves, Ammo and reloading components are getting hard to come by.
People that never owned a gun before are buying, and asking for training, saying that they think Obama will further regulate firearms in the hands of honest citizens. They want to be able to protect themselves from the dishonest, who don’t obey gun laws anyway. They expect the various stimuli to fail, and actually make the economy worse.
People remember the LA riots, a case of almost complete breakdown of the social order. The only ones tht didn’t get robbed or beaten were the guys with the guns, on the roof of their stores.
April 1st, 2009 at 7:50 am
Americans have always been able to sense when we are at risk, either from within or without. The 2nd amendment was given to us as our last defense against the tyranny of government. If we are not witnessing an all out assault on our Bill of Rights and our way of life then what more will it take? Thomas Jefferson said many things one of which was “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants” A free people are reacting as expected.
April 1st, 2009 at 9:32 am
It isn’t just firearms. It is not just ammo.
You can’t get ammunition components. You can’t get primers. You used to be able to go into any sporting goods store that stocked reloading components and buy brass, powder, primers, bullets.
Now you cannot find primers. Primers are backordered out months and months. You can’t find brass. You can’t find powder in some areas, especially powders for pistol and rifle ammunition. Shotgun powder and black powder (& substitutes) are a little easier to find. There used to be plenty of military surplus used brass for reloading. Now there is a waiting list for used brass and the prices are going up, up, up.
It isn’t just primers for military-equivalent ammunition, either. We’re talking benchrest/match, magnum, pistol and specialty primers are gone too. There are type 209 shotgun primers available here and there.
Bullets, you can find in some calibers. 5.56 and 7.62mm (.223 and .308) bullets are in very short supply unless you’re talking of special match bullets – eg, 80+ grain match bullets for .223’s that would need a throated rifle chamber.
No, sorry, this isn’t a meme. I regularly buy reloading components and I saw the online inventories at Midway, Graf’s, Huntington’s, Natchez, etc — all clear out within two weeks after the election. At one online retailer, it would have been nothing but an inventory issue. At EVERY online retailer? No, that’s not a coincidence. EVERY online retailer sells a year’s worth of reloading inventory in a couple months?
Sorry, that’s not a meme.
April 1st, 2009 at 12:26 pm
The way things are going, the importance of the second amendment may come screaming to the forefront. Hopefully not in a violent way, but the people who hold this right close to them are also generally the people who are against the current government goings on. These people will show up to vote and the power of the second amendment will show up at the polling place and not in violence on the street. Remember this is how Newt Gingritch came to power on the back of the second amendment after the Clinton Gun Ban.
I love America and I am going to buy another gun right now you should to. You will be supporting like minded people from like minded companies, this is the real and non violent power of the second amendment, GO BUY A GUN!!
April 1st, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Gun sales are very very real. It might be interesting to check on hand gun registrations in various states as well as Concealed Carry permits granted (in states that have them) since November 2008. I’d also like to know how many Concealed Carry permits have been granted to women in the past 5 months.
April 1st, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Obviously you have not recently bought a gun or ammunition!!! If you were reporting on something you knew something about it would be better story. This is just a personal opinion story since you are to lazy to go down to a gun store or ammunition store and talk to them about whats going on. Check out the sites on the internet that have begun to have over 1 year waiting lists to buy guns. rock river, dpms.
Do they pay you to do this pathetic reporting or is this a free service you are providing. Reporting like this is why so many newspapers are going under. Pathetic, incompetent and just plain lazy!!!
April 1st, 2009 at 1:56 pm
@ Bill: There’s no need to be a jerk w/your comments. I never claimed to be a gun expert. What I do know quite a bit about is reading SEC filings, which is what this site is all about. How much do you know about SEC filings? Perhaps it’s time to broaden your horizons and explore other corners of the web. Each day, footnoted raises questions about the things that companies bury in their routine filings. And while I welcome all readers, my intention wasn’t for this to turn into a place for crazed rantings from people like you.
I’ve gone ahead and allowed your comment through, though my initial inclination was to delete. I have no problem with strong opinions, but when the discussion devolves into second-grade territory and half-baked insults about the newspaper industry, I reserve editorial discretion.
April 1st, 2009 at 2:35 pm
I am not sure that the number of background checks is a good indicator of firearm sales. I may be wrong, but I believe I will be subjected to the same number of background checks whether I buy one gun or five guns on my trip to the local gun store. Moreover,
Moreover, Michelle, while you may not like Bill’s comments, it is hypocritcal to complain about “second-grade territory” and “half-baked insults” when you closed your piece by suggesting that “in many ways” the stories on gun sales are “cooked up by some public relations folks”. What evidence do you have that the statements in the filings are a public relations ploy? What evidence to you have that these are not accurate statements by these manufacturers? By my count, the only statistic you cite is the past steady increase in background checks, which you concede excludes many gun sales. While I am not reporter or a politician, I think when you use the word “many” it should mean more than one or two.
Perhaps Bill was correct.
April 1st, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Michelle,
Bill is absoutely correct!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 1st, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Michelle, I was not trying to be a jerk but when we begin to discuss our 2ND ammendment, well ahead of womens sufferage, as if it was so insignificant that the facts are no longer important, WELL, I get upset. Just as I am sure that you would if we went off on a discussion of womens right to vote with a bunch of inaccurate statements and some how belittled the whole issue. Do you see my point. I am a gun owner and I will protect that right as ernestly as you protect your right to vote and your right to write these articles!!!
April 1st, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Looking at the numbers of background checks, it would seem that the increase in activity started about the time the Democrat Party took over Congress in 2006 and the election of Obama has just increased the rate of activity further.
April 1st, 2009 at 3:38 pm
You belittled the gun issue. You attempted to make it seem that this president had no impact on the gun/ammo surge, HE DID, you made the gun mfgrs sound like they were trying to get in a publicity stunt. You made a direct but subtle stab at the gun show and personal sales of weapons but I saw it. You did state that there has been a SHARP increase over the past few months but that fact you washed over so fast and pushed it immediatly back to Bush. Your hidden agenda was just soooo obvious to me! Sorry you did not like it when I called you on it!!!!!
April 1st, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Obama is helping to re-arm America. Note, many of these guns and ammo are manufactured in the USA.
I Just bought a Marlin 30/30 lever action with a nice scope. With the new Hornady Leverevolution Ammo, this thing is accurate and useful out to 300 yards.
I’ve been packing Ammo into my fire safe as well. Dick’s Sporting Goods in Deer Park Illinois has a limit of 10 boxes of ammo per customer, due to “unprecedented demand”.
I’m getting ready for the rapidly approaching period of “civil unrest”.
April 1st, 2009 at 3:55 pm
A personal note for you Michelle: Gun owners are very serious people who have been attacked so many times and even had our guns banned by one president. We have learned to be very aggressive in support of our right and to trust no one who even seems like they are attacking it, getting prepared to attack, talk about attacking it. We do not trust our government to effectively deal with this problem. Clinton Pardoned terrorists but banned our guns. You probably have never even considered that concept or thought. We have and do. Now we have another president just like clinton when it comes to guns, that is what we see and we must be vigilant. Otherwise the criminals will have guns and we will have….what? Waiting for 911 is a fools choice, Best to take responsiblity for yourself or you might become a statistic.
April 1st, 2009 at 5:27 pm
A personal note for you Bill: Michelle has a wide and varied readership who, regardless of our positions on the gun ownership issue, take interest when people make threats against her given the general theme of this site and the information she finds while trolling through the footnotes of public companies’ reports.
April 1st, 2009 at 6:18 pm
“And while I welcome all readers, my intention wasn’t for this to turn into a place for crazed rantings from people like you.”
As soon as you start talking down to gun owners, that’s exactly what you’ll get. And while I don’t think that you were intentionally talking down to gun owners, comments such as “sales made at gun shows” and “cooked up by some public relations folks” are just that.
I’ve bought and sold quite a few firearms at gunshows, and I can tell you without a doubt, the majority of all gun show purchases are through a FFL dealer, and require a background check to be performed. This gun show loophole that the media and Democrats love to trumpet is nothing more than a cooked up story by some public relation folks. I won’t disagree that it is possible to walk into a gunshow and buy a gun without showing ID or filling out a yellow sheet, but it isn’t the norm. Next time there is a gun show in your town, go on down and ask the dealers (table by table) if they have an FFL, you will be suprised.
That said, Bill… stop being a jerk. You and I both know that there is a shortage of “black rifles” and ammo, and who caused it. We know because we buy these products. Cut Ms Leder a little slack, it’s not her cup of tea, and there is nothing wrong with that. Maybe someone just needs to invite her to the range!
April 1st, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Make your own? The supply of reloading components has become as short as that of pre-loaded ammunition. For those who use 7.62 or 5.56 Nato(.308 or .223), the prospects have become much worse due to Obama’s decision to have all spent military brass shredded and sold for scrap instead of intact to reloaders for 20 times the price as under all previous administrations.
April 1st, 2009 at 6:21 pm
I was not threatening anyone. The personal note was for her to understand what many gunowners think not a personal threat by any means. It was not for publication that is why I listed it as a personal note for her. I guess I should have said not for publication. I was trying to educate her with out adding a million lines of verse to this blog. I believed that she was either biased or uninformed. I am leaning towords biased. Anyone who blogs should know that there are some issues that get a lot of heat such as abortion, guns, gold (gold bugs get really riled up) ect…. She happened into one today and maybe had no clue why we are excitable.
Why pray tell would a President pardon terrorists after banning our guns. That is unbelievalbe. Now we have a president that is closing Gitmo and most likely will have to bring terriorists here to our soil and then I guess release them here in America in 15 years after they serve there time.
These things scare people and they naturally buy guns to protect themselves in large numbers if they feel that they will be banned in the future AGAIN!
April 1st, 2009 at 6:36 pm
I appreciate all of the comments, and perhaps should have made it clearer in the post — as opposed to my later comments — that I am not an expert on guns. To be honest, I don’t have a strong opinion on them one way or another, which is why I was naive enough to figure I could post on an SEC filing that happened to be about a gun company.
For all of those people who are new to the site, I hope you’ll stick around long enough to realize that I apply this same cynical eye to all sorts of things, including banks, CEO pay, and yes, other seemingly questionable statements from PR folks.
April 1st, 2009 at 6:44 pm
@epc… I read the whole thread. Bill is a little more passionate than most, but what threat are you referring to? And I saw the twitter posting as well. Has the post with the threat been deleted?
April 1st, 2009 at 7:04 pm
@Leigsah: Thanks for bringing this up. Just to be clear, it was not Bill who made what I described on Twitter as a “borderline threat”. That comment — on a post totally unrelated to guns — has been held while I try to figure out how to respond.
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:58 am
Interesting, if not a bit cynical, insight but you are forgetting two things in your analysis. First, you are correct that gun sales have been rising since year two of the Bush administration. You might remember also the driving factor: 9/11. Second, by looking at gun licenses applications, you are missing the point of the gun demand. The jump is greatest for those guns which you do not need to be permitted for presently.
- Shawn
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:56 pm
I just got yet another E-mail from one of the big reloading supply houses stating that my order of .30 cal. bullets is backordered for up to six months. I’ve checked, and they all have a similar waiting list. It’s the same for .22 cal. (.224) I wonder if it is the supply or the demand causing this situation. Probably both.
The bottom line is that people are worried about what the President and his Congress are about to do to the Bill of Rights, and what type of social chaos is in store for us, gun owners and non-gun owners alike.
Wisconsin allegedly has too many whitetailed deer, and I love venison. We’ll get by. But on that point, a number of my more liberal freinds have already made ‘reservations’ to sit at my table if things get out of hand in the cities. A couple have even asked for advice on what type of firearm and how much ammo to buy. (My advice, get a bolt-action .30′06 and as many shells and you can afford.) Funny how a liberal’s views change at the very thought of being hungry.
April 8th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
“Funny how a liberal’s views change at the very thought of being hungry.”
No. Views haven’t changed a bit. Humans are more important than animals. Against killing animals if unnecessary (waste). All for thinning out excess deer population (they will destroy everything in sight and cause environmental collapse without adequate predation).
I think both themes you see in the comments here are apropos: the economy (shoot for food) and the social order (banks collapsing/fear). Looking at FBI #’s, 9/11 is a non-issue. And Obama is certainly motivating the flatscan brigade, but they alone aren’t driving the sort of magnitude that we’re seeing.
I would argue that shortage is its own motivator, just like the runup we saw in oil. Gun & ammo prices started edging up because of the commodity (base metal) runup last spring. This started to mess up the supply line and this started a fear & panic mentality among some of the gold bug/survivalists, who then started “stocking up” on ammo. Meanwhile, job loss in construction trades in the South draws a straight line to “self-sufficiency” such as deer & gator poaching.
As things accelerate–the bad news, the shortages/fear in the gun community–more and more people are drawn into the circle of influence. A generally peaceable (though right-wing) friend of mine skipped knitting circle last week to go to a shooting range for the first time.
The causes of crime are complicated, and urban heat packing is more of an effect/accelerant rather than a deterrant … take a close look at 1970’s, 1980’s, 1990’s. Maybe in rural areas it is different. Friends of mine in rural trailerville in the woods pack heat every day. I suppose they know what they are doing. In the city you avoid conflict, duck behind something big and heavy, and run away.